Ashraf Ghani to Swim with the Sharks

According to preliminary results, Ashraf Ghani is the leading candidate in Afghanistan's runoff election held on June 14 wining 56% of votes. Should he take office in early August as planned, he will face many challenges to tackle: security, corruption, the drug trade, peace talks with the Taliban, improving relations with the United States, dealing with Pakistan and cross-border attacks, managing Afghanistan's economy as international aid is shrinking and many other issues.

Atta Mohammad Noor

But there is a more serious issue that he would have to tackle, something literally all Afghan Presidents for the past 40 years have tried to achieve: extend governance and authority to areas and individuals who oppose the new president. Ghani shouldn't become another "Mayor Kabul".

In particular, how is Ghani going to extend his authority in provinces where his rival Abdullah has over 80% support? How can Ghani deal with pro-Abdullah governors, army, police and intelligence officers, senior government officials loyal to Abdullah either on ethnic or political grounds? 

Swimming with Sharks

Ghani must learn to swim in an ocean with sharks.

To be more specific, Ghani will face opposition from the following:

• Members of the former Northern Alliance
• Members of Jamiate Islami Jihadi party led by slain Burhanuddin Rabbani
• Members of Shura-i-Nizar led by slain Ahamd Shah Masood (except those who are loyal to Ahamd Zia Masood, Ghani's choice of vice president)
• Pro-Abdullah governors such as Attah Mohammad Noor, governor of Balkh province
• Toran Ismahil, former cabinet minister and former governor of Herat province.
• Senior generals in army, police, and intelligence who are staunch supporters of Abdullah 

Ghani's Options

What are the options for Ghani to deal with these individuals?

If he compromises with them and allow them to have control and autonomy in their areas of control, then Ghani has certainly weakened the authority of central government. As a result corruption, bribery and the drug trade will persist; he won't be able to collect revenues from provinces and thus Ghani will allow governments within government.

On the other hand if Ghani stands against these players, then obviously he will face serious threat as these individuals have extensive support and can create headache for Ghani.

Ghani must exhibit superior and authoritative leadership and while he should be flexible and try to bring authority to remote areas gradually, he shouldn't fall in the trap of remaining indifferent and passive in the face of belligerent players such as Atta Noor, armed forces officers, senior government officials and etc. 

Democracy is only successful when it brings good and effective governance. A fragmented and a weak government will only compound existing challenges.

As the new leader of Afghanistan, then perhaps Ghani should come with new and creative ideas to resolve the old problem of a weak central government. The onus is on Ghani.